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Michigan vs. Northwestern odds

the Northwest Wildcats Dropped a crucial game at Iowa on Tuesday and are looking to bounce back at home against Michigan Wolverines Thursday.

Due to the COVID-19 pause, the Wildcats have a packed schedule with five games in 10 days.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off two straight losses, including a brutal 22 loss at Penn State.

Normally this would be a prime location for a bounce back, but NU just lost out too.

Northwestern gets as much out of this group as possible. The Wildcats have an underwhelming offensive offense with great defense.

Michigan is a bit tough defensively, but it has strengths to help weaken Northwestern’s already ineffective offense.

This game should be a classic battle between the top ten, and the bottom must be on.

Michigan is 5-5 in the very middle of the pack in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines held tight against Purdue, losing by only five at home. This was mostly due to the match between Hunter Dickinson and Zach Edey, the two best on ground players in that game.

This game against Northwestern will be a different style of play.

Northwestern University ranks 76th in the country in 3-point try percentage. Michigan ranks 147th in 3-point try percentage on defense, but ranks 64th in 3-point open rate and 32nd in rim&3 rate, per ShotQuality.

Those are two metrics in which Northwestern struggles the most. The Wildcats ranks 354 on the Open 3 Rate and 179 on the Rim & 3 Rate. They take a lot of disputed 3s.

In addition, they ranked 356th in 3-pointer off-the-dribble points per possession (PPP) and 291st in 3-pointer PPP.

These aren’t necessarily areas of strength for the Wolverines defense, but there’s a reason the NU offense ranks 84th in modified efficiency, according to KenPom.

Image by CBB Analytics

Wolverines also play a reasonable perimeter defense. Opponents shoot about 32% against them and less than 50% in 2 seconds.

Northwestern shoots 32.4% from deep and 46.5% from inside, so Michigan should be able to put up most field goals.

Northwestern excels in one area: hitting the free throw line. And feral cats shoot well from the putt (75.4%). They’ve made 20.4% of their points this season from the free throw line.

Boo Buie, Chase Audige, Robbie Beran, and Matthew Nicholson all have at least 55 free throw attempts, so these four can usually make opponents’ mistakes.

However, Michigan ranks 47th in percentage of free throw attempts on defense. 53.8% of points against Michigan’s defense have come from inside the arc and only 15.3% have come from the line.

Northwestern University shouldn’t get many hits to line in this one.

Northwestern has emphasized defense this season, and it’s been working with this group. It ranks 30th in defensive turnover (22.4%) and 17th in offense (15.3%).

Despite this, Michigan turns the ball over 14.1% of the time offensively, so this game should be played mostly in their half court.

Northwestern averages 18.2 seconds per offensive possession and ranks 236th in adjusted strike rate, per KenPom. You must slow down the pace in this game to your liking at home.

Michigan vs northwest betting pick

Neither of these two teams is particularly strong at attacking glazing, so each should only have one chance to make a bucket per trip down the field.

Northwestern’s defense is the star of the show, and Michigan can defend where NU has strengths.

All of these reasons point to an understatement in a classic low-scoring Big Ten relationship. It shouldn’t be too sloppy, but defense will prevail.

Take the low of 139.5 (-110), and run it up to 138 (-110).

pluck or pluck: Under 139 (play up to 138)

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